Will Mediterranean vineyards be forced to relocate?

n his white paper, ‘The Urgent Need to Adapt’, weather expert Serge Zaka predicts that the Mediterranean rim will lose several million hectares of crops due to desertification by the end of the century. The region is heating up “20% faster than the rest of the world” says the agro-meteorologist who announces there will be widespread summer heat stress events “way beyond the physiological resistance of the species grown there”. He predicts that the landscapes will transition from garrigue to steppe and savannah with “olive trees and vines moving north and new crops emerging around the rim”.

The vine’s growing season could lose 20 to 35 days after 2060 and “irrigation will not be a medium or long-term solution for coping with water stress”. Zaka does not exclude the relocation of several wine regions to new areas. However, Mathieu Dubernet, chairman of the Dubernet group and Terra Mea, feels the “big move” narrative is too pessimistic. “Crops are incredibly complex systems which fortunately display a measure of plasticity. Vines are located between the 30th and the 50th parallels in the Northern Hemisphere, which is a very sizeable area”, he stresses on LinkedIn.

Dubernet laments the concept of desertion, “which consolidates public opinion’s resignation in the face of agro-environmental crisis. This passive approach will be responsible for the planned desertification of our Mediterranean regions if we let it happen”. Dubernet prefers to play a “constructive” role rather than be a “mover” and advocates for greater access to irrigation. “Although our water resources are poorly distributed, they remain abundant and our ability to create storage infrastructures is a historic planning challenge that can pave the way towards a viable future in a living region”, he claims.