EU wine production and consumption predicted to drop by 0.5% by 2030

Wednesday January 15 2020 by Vitisphere

“The wine industry is adapting to a new generation of consumers, who are changing lifestyles and preferences”, DG Agri stresses.“The wine industry is adapting to a new generation of consumers, who are changing lifestyles and preferences”, DG Agri stresses. - Photo credit : Commission Européenne

In its latest future-oriented report, the European Commission's Directorate-General for Agriculture forecasts a crop volume of 155 million hectolitres by 2030, equating to an average drop in production of 0.5% in ten years. The continued decline is ascribed not so much to a drop in average yields – which are stable at 53 hl/ha despite increasing environmental standards – but rather to an almost invisible drop in production potential; although vineyard area is stable at 3 million hectares, a 0.9% drop in small vineyards is predicted. DG Agri believes that European wine production will become more concentrated as a large demographic of vineyard owners retire with no one to take over their business.

The European Commission also ascribes the reduction in wine production to the low competitive edge of vineyards that no longer meet consumer demands. “Consumption of red wine in particular, often associated with the traditional evening meal at home, is declining in Europe. Demand for white, rosé and sparkling wines, which generally have lower alcohol levels and can be drunk on more occasions, is increasing”, says the DG Agri’s memorandum.

24.5 litres/year

Due to a combination of health concerns and changes in drinking occasions, the volume of wine consumed annually in Europe is expected to fall to 24.5 litres per adult in 2030 (compared with 25.3 l/year in 2019, and 25.9 l/year in 2012). This will have a direct impact on sales of European wines, as 80% of volumes are drunk within the common market.

Geographical indication

Although export volumes have surged over the last decade (+6% to 24 million hl in 2019), growth will slow over the next ten years (+1% to 26 million hl in 2030). “Despite strong competition from other producer countries and possible trade tensions, in particular with the United States, European exports [should] be driven by strong demand for wines with a geographical indication”, stresses DG Agri.





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