The outlook for Asian wine consumption by 2019

Friday April 15 2016 by Vitisphere

Two months before Vinexpo Hong Kong opens from May 24 to 26 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, the show’s organisers have released forecasts for wine consumption in the region by 2019.

The forecasts, which come from research conducted by The IWSR, are relatively optimistic, predicting a 5.2 % rise in consumption of wine in the Asia-Pacific region between 2015 and 2019. Admittedly, this is a far cry from the 18.4% increase posted between 2010 and 2014, but consumption figures are still headed north and the increase comes on the back of a broader base. For 2014, Vinexpo-The IWSR figures show that consumption of still wines in the region reached 264.3 million cases, accounting for 11% of global consumption. For Vinexpo organisers, the main cause for optimism lies in the relatively low per capita consumption levels in Asia, raising the prospect of significant growth in the future. The research also shows that all Asian countries are on an upward trend. Between 2009 and 2014, volumes rose in all markets within the region, particularly in China, Taiwan and Vietnam. By 2019, the study predicts that growth will come from India, which should surge by 90.5% by volume, the Philippines (+26.5%), Vietnam (+18.2%), South Korea (+18.5%) and Japan (+14.9%).

But are these forecasts too premature or optimistic, at least for China? This is the suggestion made by Chinese newspaper, The Shanghai Daily, which points to the impact of the economic crisis affecting the country. Based on figures from Vinexpo-The IWSR research, it comments on the fact that Chinese consumption of red wine fell by 7.24 million cases in 2015 to 131.9 million cases. For Wang Zuming, secretary general of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, also quoted by the newspaper, it is too soon to talk about a recovery of wine consumption.

However, the slowdown in demand would seem to be affecting domestic wines more than their imported counterparts. Local wines, which dominate the Chinese wine scene, are apparently suffering from a number of intrinsic shortcomings that are hindering their development. These include their price, which is high due to the desire for a quick return on investment; a change in consumer habits, with people now more educated and able to decipher foreign wine labelling; and lack of communication by Chinese wine firms. Hence, imported wines rosé by 3.3% by volume between 2013 and 2014 according to data by Vinexpo-The IWSR, quoted by The Shanghai Daily. France is still the leading foreign supplier with a 40% market share, followed by Australia. Spain has also been highly successful, posting a 55.6% rise in volume sales between January and May 2015 compared with the previous year.


[ Source: Vitisphere. Photo: Vinexpo Asia-Pacific ]

 

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