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Australia : the gloomy forecast of the Australian administration

Par Vitisphere Le 17 mars 2009
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Australia : the gloomy forecast of the Australian administration
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In the last forecasts published on Thursday 5th March, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE), banked on Australian wine production again increasing over the course of the next few years, after the decrease of 1.7 million tonnes seen this year, because of the intense warm weather at the end of January and start of February.
According to ABARE, production would reach 1.85 million tonnes next year and more than 2 million tonnes by the year 2012-13, this growth affecting both red and white wines. And yet stocks of wine in wineries are in fact increasing because of the fact of a decline in both sales and exports on the domestic market.
It is predicting that a reduction of grape purchases from wineries and the pursuit of bulk wine exports has lowered the price. The price of grapes would therefore have to remain at a low level, predicts ABARE. The average price would have to fall to $690 AU (354€) this year and $676 AU (346 €) next year with only modest increases in the following four years. Accounting for expected inflation, the price of grapes would have to in fact fall 8% over the course of the next 5 years.
Exports would have to continue to fall to $2.4 billion AU (€1.2 billion) in 2008-09 and the following year, befor climbing to $3.4 billion AU (€1.7 billion ) by the year 2013-14. The domestic market, fiercely competitive due to both New Zealand and Southern European wines, would itself fall, to 423,000 litres in 2008-09 with volumes of imports reaching 15%. The decline would continue in 2009-10 before a significant recovery to 560,000 litres by the year 2013-14.

[Source : Weekly Time]

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